Scandinavian mobile infrastructure suppliers Nokia and Ericsson stand to be amongst the most significant losers following the trade sanctions imposed on Russian companies after the invasion of neighboring Ukraine and the atrocities being committed there.
5G
And the biggest winners are expected to be Chinese groups, mainly Huawei.
The two European infrastructure makers have confirmed they have stopped supplying Russian operators such as Veon, MegaFon, and MTS.
Ericsson CEO Borje Ekholm said in a statement, “We are now urgently reviewing how our business might be affected by the events and the sanctions imposed. We are suspending all deliveries to Russia while we conduct our analysis.”
Nokia has responded in a similar way, confirming it would fully comply with the sanctions and that it had stopped all deliveries to Russian telcos.
Subsequently, the Finnish company’s CEO, Pekka Lundmark, expressed serious concerns regarding the on-going conflict and noted that ”Nokia stands for human rights, international cooperation and the rule of law.”
He added the company is donating €1 million to UNICEF to help the organization’s humanitarian work in Ukraine.
The operators’ only credible alternative to the situation is that their 5G roll-out aspiration can be fulfilled by Huawei, and a serious potential knock-on effect of that will be a huge economic hit as they cope with the huge expense of swap-outs of network gear that they will no longer be able to support.
MTS is known to have chosen the Scandinavian suppliers for the bulk of their mobile infrastructure equipment, and MegaFon was reported to have signed a large, multi-year contract for a significant nationwide microwave backhaul deal with Ericsson about three years ago.
It seems likely that both companies will have to significantly increase production in Russia, and that would mean partnering with local firms that have limited expertise in making 4G and 5G infrastructure gear.
Just how significant a loss in annual revenues the moves represent for Nokia and Ericsson is debatable, as neither company breaks down what it earns in individual countries in its financial results.
Last year, Ericsson suggested that the U.K. was its fourth largest market, generating 3% of annual revenues. Russia was not within the top 5, so is likely to represent about 2% of sales.
It seems rather ironic — but perhaps not that surprising in the current state of geopolitics — that a Chinese group, with, allegedly, strong ties to the Chinese government, could dominate the Russian communications infrastructure market for the next few years.
In the long run, Russian consumers will be the losers, since the roll-out of 5G has only just started and the impact of these sanctions will seriously delay the availability of the new technology.
It should also be noted that US sanctions on the really sophisticated semiconductors needed for 5G equipment means Huawei will not have access to these technologies. The other major Chinese telecoms equipment supplier, ZTE, will also struggle to take advantage of the situation, as it still relies significantly on semiconductors and other components from the U.S.
Biden administration indeed announced even more stringent sanctions on doing business with Russia than some European countries. Top of the list was confirmation that “Russia-wide restrictions on sensitive U.S. technologies produced in foreign countries using US-origin software, technology or equipment” would be closely monitored. “This includes Russia-wide restrictions on semiconductors, telecommunications, encryption security, lasers, sensor, navigation, avionics and maritime technologies,” stressed the White House edict.
Eventually, it will take the Chinese groups several years before they will be able to match the kind of state-of-the-art chips available to others, such as Ericsson and Nokia, from the likes of Samsung, Intel and TSMC.